Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?
Started
Dec 16, 2020 12:45AM UTC
Closed Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jul 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China (Guardian, Toronto Star, CBC, South China Morning Post).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 July 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, only Michael Kovrig | 0% | |
| Yes, only Michael Spavor | 0% | |
| Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 137 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 542 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
