Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?

Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service (CNBC, TechCrunch, CGTN). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question.

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Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count.

Name Probability
Yes 5%

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