Started Dec 18, 2020 07:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?

While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case (European Parliament - Briefing, European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI), CEPS, South China Morning Post, Core.ac.uk). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement.

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Name Probability
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022 10%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022 85%
No 5%

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