Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?
Started
Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 23, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 23, 2021 07:00PM UTC
Challenges
Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years (NY Times, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party" with a closing date of 23 March 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party | 100% | |
Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party | 0% | |
There will not be an election before 1 April 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 145 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 371 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |