Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?

Started Dec 22, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 23, 2021 07:00PM UTC

Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years (NY Times, Times of Israel, Foreign Policy).

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The question closed "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party" with a closing date of 23 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party 100%
Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party 0%
There will not be an election before 1 April 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 145
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 371
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.089
2.
-0.087
3.
-0.087
4.
-0.087

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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