Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies approve the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis?

Started Dec 31, 2020 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 10, 2021 10:30PM UTC

After several delays and being approved by the Senate of the Republic, the Federal Law for the Regulation of Cannabis is scheduled for a vote by Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies sometime between February and April 2021 (Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Xataka [in Spanish], El Economista [in Spanish]). The approval of an amended version of the legislation approved by the Mexican Senate would count. Whether the legislation actually becomes law is immaterial, and procedural votes other than final approval by the Chamber would not count.

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The question closed "Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021" with a closing date of 10 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 March 2021 0%
Between 1 March and 31 March 2021 100%
Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021 0%
Not before 1 May 2021 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 21
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.016
2.
-0.016
4.
-0.015

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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