Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Closed Mar 15, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high (AP, Bloomberg, BBC). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 March 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 218 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 369 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |