The Economist asks:

Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?

Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize (EconomistNY Times, The Hill). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 218
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 698
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.571771
2.
-0.545061
3.
-0.543755
4.
-0.527765
5.
-0.525719

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username