Started Jan 08, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?

The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown (Economist, S&P Global). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the "Leveraged Loan Trends" section, click on the "Default Rate" tab to show the "Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

131

Forecast
Count

418

Crowd Brier Score

0.0371


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.055
2.
-0.043
3.
-0.037
5.
-0.035

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