Started Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?

The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 18 September 2021" with a closing date of 18 September 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021 0%
Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021 0%
Not before 18 September 2021 100%

No. of
Forecasters

132

Forecast
Count

887

Crowd Brier Score

1.0845


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.219
2.
-0.942
3.
-0.925
4.
-0.913
5.
-0.905

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username