BenDuth asks:

Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?

Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators (Reuters, NPR, CNBC). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" (CNBC, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 164
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 307
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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