Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

BenDuth asks:

Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?

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Challenges

Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators (Reuters, NPR, CNBC). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather "lying low" (CNBC, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 April 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

164

Forecast
Count

307

Crowd Brier Score

0.004


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

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