Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?

Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

134

Forecast
Count

600

Crowd Brier Score

0.7576


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.843
3.
-0.821
4.
-0.812
5.
-0.809

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