Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?
Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.