Question 95 of 129 in In the News 2021
Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?

Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.

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Name Probability
Yes 2%

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