Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?
Started
Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years (TASS, Daily Mail). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted (CSIS). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 134 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 600 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
