Started Jan 22, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC

How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?

Tags
Health  
Challenges

The infection rate (also known as Rt) "is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect" (COVID Act Now - Glossary). The outcome will be determined using data from covidactnow.org at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "INFECTION RATE." As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "29 or more" with a closing date of 31 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
7 or fewer 0%
Between 8 and 14 0%
Between 15 and 21 0%
Between 22 and 28 0%
29 or more 100%

No. of
Forecasters

141

Forecast
Count

748

Crowd Brier Score

1.4775


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.245
2.
-1.102
3.
-1.041
4.
-1.004
5.
-0.956

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