The Economist asks:

What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?

Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover (Economist, LA Times). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the "Cumulative Gross" column for June, July, and August 2021 (Box Office Mojo). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148.

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The question closed "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $200 million 0%
Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive 0%
More than $500 million but less than $1 billion 0%
Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive 100%
More than $1.75 billion 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 137
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 667
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.411
2.
-0.403
3.
-0.347
4.
-0.336
5.
-0.322

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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