Question 24 of 126 in In the News 2021
Started Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?

Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 (US News, BBC, Time). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Name Probability
Yes 16%

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