Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?
Started
Feb 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny (AP, Moscow Times). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 131 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 450 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
