Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 217 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 980 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |