Question 70 of 95 in In the News 2021
Started Feb 10, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?

In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism (USA Today, DHS.gov). For the purposes of this question, an "act of domestic terrorism" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) (Cornell). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count.

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