The Economist asks:
What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?
Closed Sep 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult (Economist, Politico, Newsweek). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 (BLS - Release Schedule).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Less than 5.4%" with a closing date of 1 September 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 5.4% | 55% | |
Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive | 45% | |
More than 5.9% but less than 6.6% | 0% | |
Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive | 0% | |
More than 7.1% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 177 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208 | |
Number of Forecasts | 853 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |