Adam Grant asks:

In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?

Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 21, 2021 02:00PM UTC

The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits (NCAA). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law (CBS Sports, Oyez). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit (SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 (Supremecourt.gov).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 21 June 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 72.50%
No 27.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 471
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.664
2.
-0.661
3.
-0.637
4.
-0.629
5.
-0.62

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username