The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?

Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC
Closed Jun 17, 2021 02:00PM UTC

The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic (Economist, GTBA). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner (GBTA). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey (GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021, see questions 20 and 21, GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021, see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 17 June 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 80.00%
No 20.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 446
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 764
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.17
2.
-0.169
3.
-0.169
4.
-0.169
5.
-0.169

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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