Started Feb 24, 2021 09:30PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?

With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen (Economist, The Hill, FOXNews). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI (FBI.gov). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks.

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Name Probability
Fewer than 8,000,000 0%
Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive 9%
More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000 48%
Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive 39%
More than 14,000,000 4%

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