Adam Grant and Tim Harford ask:
How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?
Closed Jul 11, 2021 09:30AM UTC
As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response (CNN, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021.
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The question closed "More than 19.0 million" with a closing date of 11 July 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 14.5 million | 0% | |
| Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million | 0% | |
| Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 19.0 million | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 280 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1146 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
