Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will restaurants in New York City (NYC) be permitted to offer indoor dining at 85% capacity or more before 1 July 2021?

Started Mar 26, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 19, 2021 06:00PM UTC

NYC has imposed various restrictions on restaurants and other establishments as the city and the world deal with the COVID-19 pandemic (Spectrum News, WABC). As of 26 March 2021, restaurants in NYC were permitted to reopen for indoor dining at 50% of capacity (nyc.gov - Business and Facilities Page, nyc.gov - Restaurant Reopening Guide). Exemptions and/or waivers for specific restaurants would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 19 May 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 96.00%
No 4.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 395
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.671
3.
-0.671
4.
-0.67

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username