How many US adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 1 May 2021?

Started Apr 07, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' "COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries" for the week ending 1 May 2021 (Healthdata.gov). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, "previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed" and "previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed," inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and US Virgin Islands. As these are "previous day" data, we will use the data dated 26 April 2021 through 2 May 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.

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The question closed "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000" with a closing date of 2 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 15,000 0%
Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive 0%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000 5%
Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive 95%
More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000 0%
Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive 0%
More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000 0%
Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive 0%
More than 85,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.127
3.
-0.116
4.
-0.113

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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