How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported for the week ending 1 May 2021?

Started Apr 07, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 25 April 2021 through 1 May 2021, inclusive (JHU CSSE GitHub). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 24 April 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 1 May 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021.

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The question closed "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 2 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 1,500 0%
Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive 0%
More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500 8%
Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive 92%
More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500 0%
Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive 0%
More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500 0%
Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive 0%
More than 12,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 77
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 295
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.072
2.
-0.062
3.
-0.038
4.
-0.038
5.
-0.034

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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