How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 30 April 2021, according to the CDC?
Closed Apr 30, 2021 07:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed no sooner than 9 May 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000" with a closing date of 30 April 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 130,000,000 | 0% | |
| Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000 | 99% | |
| Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000 | 0% | |
| Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 180,000,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 98 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 411 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 585 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
