Started Apr 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) asks:

Between 16 April 2021 and 31 December 2021, will ASML obtain an export license from the Netherlands to export an Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system to the People's Republic of China?

ASML is a Dutch company which leads in the development and manufacturing of UV lithography systems (ASML.com). It currently controls the supply of Extreme Ultraviolet lithography systems, used in the manufacturing of cutting edge computer processor chips (Medium, ASML.com, Laser Focus World). ASML is required to obtain a license from the Netherlands to export these systems to China, which has become an issue of geopolitical contention (Asia Times, B1ts & Ch1ps). To learn more about the export licensing process in the Netherlands, please see: https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/export-control-policy-for-strategic-goods, https://www.government.nl/topics/export-controls-of-strategic-goods/question-and-answer/how-can-i-obtain-an-export-licence-for-strategic-goods-or-dual-use-goods. A subsidiary of ASML obtaining a relevant export license would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

101

Forecast
Count

233

Crowd Brier Score

0.0006


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
2.
-0.0
3.
-0.0
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-0.0

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