The Economist and Adam Grant ask:

Will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package before 1 September 2021?

Started Apr 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2021 06:00PM UTC

As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the "Next Generation EU" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed (EconomistEuropean Council, European Parliament, European Commission). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements (Ernst & Young, European Commission, Politico.eu). The question would resolve upon the last Member State notifying the EU that it has approved the decision (European Council).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 31 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 84.00%
No 16.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.128553
3.
-0.126055
4.
-0.126055
5.
-0.125832

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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