How many people in the US will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 May 2021, according to the CDC?

Started May 05, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People with at least One Dose” (CDC). The data will be accessed on 14 June 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

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The question closed "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 May 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 170,000,000 50%
Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive 50%
More than 180,000,000 but fewer than 190,000,000 0%
Between 190,000,000 and 200,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 200,000,000 but fewer than 210,000,000 0%
Between 210,000,000 and 220,000,000, inclusive 0%
More than 220,000,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 181
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.187
2.
-0.178
4.
-0.108
5.
-0.082

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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