Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

According to The Infinite Dial 2022, what percentage of the US population will have "listened to a podcast in the last month?"

The Infinite Dial is an annual survey of digital behavior conducted by Edison Research, typically conducted in January each year and released in March (Edison Research). According to The Infinite Dial 2021, 41% of the U.S. population age 12+ "listened to a podcast in the last month" (The Infinite Dial 2021, see page 56). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and the outcome determined once The Infinite Dial 2022 is released, typically in March.

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NOTE 25 May 2021: The question is concerned with the 12+ age group as reported by The Infinite Dial.


The question closed "Less than 42%" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 42% 0%
Between 42% and 44%, inclusive 28%
More than 44% but less than 48% 68%
48% or more 4%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 134
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 434
average for questions older than 6 months: 687
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.901
2.
-0.872
3.
-0.87
4.
-0.801
5.
-0.796

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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