Tim Harford asks:
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues (FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization).
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NOTE 14 May 2021: The authorization/approval of an EUA amendment for a modified vaccine would not count (e.g., https://www.fda.gov/media/142749/download, see Appendix 2).
NOTE 27 July 2021: The approval of an already approved vaccine for administration as a booster would not count.
The question closed "3" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2 or fewer | 0% | |
| 3 | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | |
| 6 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 130 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 573 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
