Tim Harford asks:

How many COVID-19 vaccines will be authorized for emergency use or approved by the US FDA as of 31 December 2021?

Started May 07, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines continues (FDA - COVID-19 Vaccines, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization).

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NOTE 14 May 2021: The authorization/approval of an EUA amendment for a modified vaccine would not count (e.g., https://www.fda.gov/media/142749/download, see Appendix 2).

NOTE 27 July 2021: The approval of an already approved vaccine for administration as a booster would not count.


The question closed "3" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
2 or fewer 0%
3 100%
4 0%
5 0%
6 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 573
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.327
2.
-0.309
3.
-0.308
4.
-0.308
5.
-0.283

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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