Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 14 December 2021, will the World Trade Organization (WTO) officially agree to grant waivers for intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccine technology?

Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 14, 2021 08:01AM UTC

The Biden administration has announced that it would support waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines (USTR.gov, NPR, Reuters). While consensus among all 164 member states is sought for WTO decisions, an agreement to grant waivers could be made by a vote of three-fourths of member states (WTO, SDG Knowledge Hub).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 276
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
3.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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