Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 8 January 2022, will Facebook allow Donald Trump to post on Facebook and/or Instagram from any of his verified accounts?

Started May 14, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 08, 2022 08:01AM UTC

On 5 May 2021, Facebook’s Oversight Board upheld a January decision to keep Donald Trump from posting content on his Facebook page and Instagram account, but criticized the current state of Facebook regulations as to content rules and gave the company six months to review those rules (Oversight Board, NPR, Fox Business).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 171
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 361
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.012
4.
-0.012
5.
-0.009

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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