Started May 28, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

Will the US civilian labor force participation rate reach or exceed 63.0% for any month in 2021?

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the US labor market hard, though it has been recovering (Pew Research, AP, Fox Business). The outcome will be determined using monthly data as first reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Revisions to data would be immaterial. For December 2020, the BLS reported a US civilian labor force participation rate of 61.5% (BLS Employment Situation Release - December 2020).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 342
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.039
2.
-0.037
3.
-0.027
5.
-0.021

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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