What will US holiday season retail sales be for 2021 relative to the 2020 holiday season?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
A reopening economy points to rising consumer spending and retail sales in 2021 (CNBC, RetailWire). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas" data from the US Census Bureau for November and December 2021 relative to the same period in 2020, expected to be released in January 2022 (Census.gov). To retrieve the data, under the "Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report" section, select "Time Series/Trend Charts: Create your own customizable time series." Do the following in each of the five options: (1) select "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services," (2) set Start at 2020 and End at 2021, (3) select "44W72: Retail Trade and Food Services, ex Auto and Gas," (4) select "Sales - Monthly," (5) select "U.S. Total," and leave only "Seasonally Adjusted" checked. For November and December 2020, the Bureau reported combined sales of 776,335 (millions of dollars).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Higher by 7.5% or more" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
The same or lower for 2021 | 0% | |
Higher by more than 0.0% but less than 2.5% | 0% | |
Higher by between 2.5% and 5.0%, inclusive | 0% | |
Higher by more than 5.0% but less than 7.5% | 0% | |
Higher by 7.5% or more | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 66 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 300 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |