Will any four-week average of US field production of crude oil exceed 12 million b/d in 2021?

Started Jun 11, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

US oil production fell a record 8% in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic (EIA, USA Today). The outcome will be determined using the "4-Week Avg U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil" data (which is displayed in thousands of barrels per day) as reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) (EIA). A weekly figure must have its "End Date" in 2021 to count. In June 2021, the EIA forecasted domestic production would reach an average of 11.38 million barrels per day (million b/d) in the fourth quarter of 2021 (EIA STEO June 2021, see Table 4a).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 349
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.033
2.
-0.033
3.
-0.033
4.
-0.031
5.
-0.028

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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