Started Jun 17, 2021 10:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What will be the global price of wheat in November 2021, according to the IMF?

Rising global food prices are a growing concern (Al Jazeera). The outcome will be determined using monthly IMF data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome determined when monthly IMF data for November 2021 are available, typically in December.

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The question closed "Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than $220.00/MT 0%
Between $220.00/MT and $260.00/MT, inclusive 0%
Higher than $260.00/MT but lower than $300.00/MT 22%
Between $300.00/MT and $340.00/MT, inclusive 78%
Higher than $340.00/MT 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 87
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 568
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.386
2.
-0.376
3.
-0.263
5.
-0.209

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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