Started Jun 18, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 30, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the closing price of Brent crude oil be higher than $70.00 per barrel on 30 December 2021?

The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by Bloomberg (Bloomberg).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 30 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 98.50%
No 1.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 931
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.187
3.
-0.182
4.
-0.182
5.
-0.18

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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