Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will at least 3.5 million people in New Zealand be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 before 30 December 2021?

Started Jun 25, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2021 10:59AM UTC

The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the NZ Ministry of Health for "second doses administered" (NZ Ministry of Health). Data will be obtained at approximately 5pm ET on 30 December 2021 if the question is still open at that time. If the NZ Ministry of Health changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 106
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 436
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.256
2.
-0.252
5.
-0.248

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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