Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will the US FDA approve a drug used to reverse the effects of Alzheimer's disease on the brain and/or approve a vaccine to prevent Alzheimer's disease as of 2035?

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Alzheimer's disease accounts for 60-80% of dementia cases (Alzheimer's Association). The outcome will be determined using available FDA approval data available as of 31 December 2035. "Expanded access/compassionate use," "accelerated approval," and "emergency use" authorizations would not count (FDA - Expanded Access, FDA - Accelerated Approval, FDA - Emergency Use Authorization).

This question will be suspended on 1 October 2021. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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80%

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