Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 16, 2021 03:00AM UTC

Will the US fully evacuate or lose control of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, before 1 December 2021?

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As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (NY Times, Military Times, NPR). The safety of the US embassy is a concern (Politico, CNN). A lockdown alone would not count (NPR).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

91

Forecast
Count

299

Crowd Brier Score

1.4577


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.577
2.
-1.435
3.
-1.374
4.
-1.224

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