Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

What will be total OPEC crude oil production for October 2021?

There is ongoing disagreement within OPEC regarding crude oil production (Business Times, CNBC, World Oil). The outcome will be determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The July 2021 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 26,034 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in June 2021 (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 49 in the document). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2021 and closed when the October 2021 data are released, scheduled for November 2021.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d" with a closing date of 1 November 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 25,500 tb/d 0%
Between 25,500 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive 7%
More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,500 tb/d 88%
28,500 tb/d or more 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 70
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 201
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.061
3.
-0.061
4.
-0.049
5.
-0.048

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username