Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 15, 2021 01:00PM UTC

As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 100.00%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 85
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 268
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.862
2.
-0.862
3.
-0.845
4.
-0.834
5.
-0.822

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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