Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 15, 2021 01:00PM UTC

Will Ashraf Ghani either flee Afghanistan or cease to be its president before 1 January 2022?

As US and NATO forces continue their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban is making gains in the country (Al Jazeera, Military Times). Whether or not Ghani has fled Afghanistan will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 August 2021.

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Final Crowd Forecast

100%

Chance

Correct Answer

Yes

No. of
Forecasters

85

Forecast
Count

268

Crowd Brier Score

0.649


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.862
2.
-0.862
3.
-0.845
4.
-0.834
5.
-0.822

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