Tim Harford asks:
What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?
Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the "CPI ANNUAL RATE" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).
The question closed "4.1% or more" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 1.7%||0%|
|Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive||0%|
|More than 2.2% but less than 2.9%||0%|
|Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive||0%|
|More than 3.4% but less than 4.1%||7%|
|4.1% or more||93%|
|Number of Forecasters||78|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 258|
|Number of Forecasts||355|
|average for questions older than 6 months: 686|
|Accuracy of participants|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||about average|