Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Tim Harford asks:

What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?

Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the "CPI ANNUAL RATE" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "4.1% or more" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.7% 0%
Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive 0%
More than 2.2% but less than 2.9% 0%
Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive 0%
More than 3.4% but less than 4.1% 7%
4.1% or more 93%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 355
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.467
4.
-0.327
5.
-0.224

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username