Tim Harford asks:

What will be the annual change in the UK's Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for November 2021?

Started Jul 21, 2021 02:27PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Like much of the world, inflation concerns are running high in the UK (CNBC, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2021 and the outcome will be determined using the "CPI ANNUAL RATE" as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) when first released, typically in December 2021 (ONS).

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The question closed "4.1% or more" with a closing date of 1 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1.7% 0%
Between 1.7% and 2.2%, inclusive 0%
More than 2.2% but less than 2.9% 0%
Between 2.9% and 3.4%, inclusive 0%
More than 3.4% but less than 4.1% 7%
4.1% or more 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 78
Average for questions older than 6 months: 230
Number of Forecasts 355
Average for questions older than 6 months: 638
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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