Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?

While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (USA Today, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Before 1 October 2021 0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021 0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 0.00% +0.00%
Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022 1.00% +0.00%
Not before 1 April 2022 99.00% +0.00%

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