Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen fewer than 1.3 million travelers per day for three consecutive days?
Closed Mar 30, 2022 02:00PM UTC
While the predominance of the Delta variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 hasn't greatly impacted air travel in the US, there are concerns that it or another variant could change that (USA Today, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA (TSA). The TSA last screened fewer than 1.3 million travelers each day for three consecutive days 15-17 March 2021.
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The question closed "Not before 1 April 2022" with a closing date of 30 March 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 1 October 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 October 2021 and 30 November 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 1 December 2021 and 31 January 2022 | 0% | |
| Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022 | 0% | |
| Not before 1 April 2022 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 97 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 498 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
