Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.