Started Jul 23, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?

Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Final Crowd Forecast

0%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

98

Forecast
Count

190

Crowd Brier Score

0.0003


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.0
2.
-0.0
4.
-0.0

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