Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Egypt and Ethiopia before 1 January 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Tensions continue to flare between Egypt and Ethiopia, particularly in relation to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute (Middle East Eye, Egypt Independent, Africa Report). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0.00% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 98 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219 | |
Number of Forecasts | 190 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |