Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Sep 20, 2021 07:01AM UTC

024_andrew asks:

Will the Liberal Party win a majority of seats in the 2021 Canadian parliamentary elections?

Canadian Governor General Mary Simon dissolved the Canadian parliament at PM Justin Trudeau's request on Sunday 15 August 2021 and set election day for 20 September 2021 (Edmonton Journal, BBC).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 14 September 2021: A majority is a number or percentage equaling more than half of a total. In order to win a majority of seats, a party needs to win 170 or more seats. Majority is not synonymous with plurality.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 September 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Final Crowd Forecast

6%

Chance

Correct Answer

No

No. of
Forecasters

71

Forecast
Count

207

Crowd Brier Score

0.0227


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.026
4.
-0.024
5.
-0.022

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username