asks:

When will the Scottish government officially request discussions on or agreement to a Section 30 order from the UK government that would enable the Scottish government to call a new independence referendum?

Started Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 28, 2022 02:00PM UTC

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon continues to push for a new referendum on Scottish independence (Sky News, House of Commons Library, Scottish Devolution: Section 30 Orders). A request from the Scottish First Minister (e.g., 2017 Sturgeon Letter to Prime Minister May) or a mandate for discussions from the Scottish parliament (e.g., Scottish Parliament's "Scotland's Choice" Motion) would count.

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The question closed "Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022" with a closing date of 28 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 January 2022 0%
Between 1 January 2022 and 30 June 2022 0%
Between 1 July 2022 and 31 December 2022 11%
Not before 1 January 2023 89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 183
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 618
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.638
3.
-0.603
4.
-0.583
5.
-0.558

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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